Shifting Balance of Power

The war in Gaza has totally altered the geo-political landscape in the Middle East. And the Russia-Ukraine war too has created new political dynamics in Europe. For one thing, the global warlords like it or not, multi-polarity is a reality, while shifting balance of power globally and regionally is a fact of life. Washington’s Arab allies and Israel are in opposite camps now. After the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June the regional balance of power has definitely changed in favour of Iran, creating a new situation where Israeli hegemony is threatened. America is now desperately trying to regroup its valets in the Middle East to strengthen Israel’s position. Twenty-one months into the war, Tehran appears far less a threat to the Arab world but Israel looks increasingly like a regional hegemon.

The European Union’s persistent efforts to isolate and crush Russia militarily and economically have not succeeded. Instead, Russia’s strategy to unite China, Iran, and North Korea, both militarily and financially, has succeeded in making a platform to challenge American hegemony. In truth, the alliance of emerging economies is offering a counterweight to the United States and other Western powers. The military strikes on Iran are testing its unity and paving the way for a new world order. Trump, being the self-styled deal-maker, is now in a hopeless situation as no major power is ready to oblige him anymore by accepting his authority.

The West’s grand conspiracy to defeat Russia through its proxy Ukraine now stands shattered after China’s somewhat veiled threat to the EU. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently told the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas that Beijing didn’t want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine, as it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing. Some EU officials involved were surprised by the frankness of Wang’s remarks, but they were equally troubled by his stern message. Then China has never criticised Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine and has maintained a close diplomatic and strategic relationship with Moscow—a constant source of friction for EU countries. Wang’s comment to KajaKallas would confirm what many in Brussels believe to be Beijing’s position but jar with China’s public utterances.

Wang is said to have rejected the Western accusation that China was materially supporting Russia’s war effort, financially and militarily, insisting that if it was doing so, the conflict would have ended long ago. It was like a bombshell for EU leaders. Here lies the crux of the problem. It’s one way to tell the world that Russia is going to win the war and the age of the America-dominated unipolar hegemonic world order is over. Despite NATO’s steady eastward expansion and sharp increase in defence spending, Russia looks determined to achieve its objective in Ukraine.

The three-year conflict remains one of the biggest sources of friction between China and the European bloc, which has long criticised Beijing for supplying dual-use items to Russia. However, Beijing has repeatedly denied the charge and positioned itself as a peacemaker that considers both Moscow and Kyiv to be partners.

The hard reality is that the EU relies almost entirely on Chinese supply, without which it cannot make anything from planes and advanced weapons to cars and refrigerators. While China didn’t want war, its prolongation may suit Beijing’s strategic needs so long as the US remains engaged in Ukraine.

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Frontier
Vol 58, No. 5, Jul 27 - Aug 2, 2025